Exactly what we pick from, how we prove an edge works, and the real trades behind every one. Nothing here is a guess — each number comes from the trades you can click into below.
Edge — the average extra return the setup made compared with just owning the market, over the hold. “+5% edge” = it beat the market by 5% on average.
Beat the market — the trade made more money than simply buying the index (S&P 500 for US large caps, Russell 2000 for small caps, FTSE/DAX abroad) over the exact same days.
Market‑relative return — the stock’s return minus what the market did over the same days. It removes “the whole market went up” so you see the setup’s own contribution.
Discovery data (the older years) — where we found the edge. Proof data (recent ~18 months, held back) — the edge had never seen it; if it still works here it’s likely real, not luck.
Win rate — how often the setup beat the market. Trades — how many times it happened in 5 years (more = more trustworthy).
Hold & entry/exit — the setup is confirmed at the close, so you buy at the next morning’s OPEN and sell at the OPEN exactly N trading days later (open‑to‑open). A “5‑day hold” is a full 5 trading days — no same‑day round‑trips. Both fills are market‑on‑open. No stop‑loss/take‑profit in the base hold.
“If I invest $X” — means buying $X worth of the stock (≈ $X ÷ price in shares). Profit/loss = $X × the stock’s % move. On a leveraged broker account the % return on the cash you actually put up is larger — and so is the risk.
Worst dip — the deepest the stock fell below your entry at any point before you sold. Shows how much heat you’d have sat through (and why stop‑losses matter — coming next).
What we pick from
- Every current US‑listed stock (NASDAQ + NYSE), refreshed daily, plus the FTSE 100 and DAX 40 — about 5,000 companies.
- We keep 5 years of daily prices for all of them, topped up each night after the markets close.
- Picks come only from liquid, easily‑traded stocks (price ≥ $5, plenty of daily volume). Penny stocks are excluded — they’re noise.
How we prove an edge
- Spot a setup at a point in time (e.g. “fell ≥20% in 10 days”) using only data up to that day.
- Measure what happened next vs the market, for every hold from 1 day to 60 days.
- Keep it only if it beat the market in BOTH the older discovery years and the recent held‑back proof period.
- Each day, pick the liquid stocks triggering one of these proven setups.
Hold:If I invest$per trade
Win rate:(win rate isn’t everything — a low‑win edge with big winners can still be very profitable; all of these stay profitable after capping outliers)
Loading evidence…